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NEWSCECA

16
May
  • Tuesday, 10:25:25, 2017
  • Funcas

16 out of the 17 Funcas Panel analysts improve their forecasts for 2017

by CECA
The Funcas panel of experts forecasts 2.8% growth of the Spanish economy in 2017, two tenths more than the previous panel forecast, after all the analysts have revised their estimates up, except for one whose estimate remains the same.
19
Apr
  • Wednesday, 16:00:09, 2017
  • Funcas

The credit that we ate

by CECA

In the first chapter of the famous book of Raghuram Rajan Fault Lines —edited in Spanish as Crevices of the System—, the principal explosive of the financial crisis in many countries is described using the expression “that they eat credit”. Reduced interest rates, standards of lax grants and a real estate bubble constitute a time bomb which we have experienced and suffered the sobering consequences. They persist. In Spain the banquet was not small. There was even a late brake because whilst the crisis was already a dark reality in many countries, in these places the private sector still gulped down debt until 2010. In that year, Spanish companies and homes relied on credit and negotiable securities —different from assets—, with a value of 2.33 trillion euros, 216.7% of the GDP. The Published Financial Accounts this week by the Banco de España signal that that debt was reduced to 1.85 trillion in 2016 (166.1%). It is a commendable effort that, in no few cases, locks unpleasant outcomes both corporate as well as family-related. The private sector has reduced its debt by 482,645 million euros in just six years, practically 50% of the GDP. They are the companies (with a loss of this debt of 296,694 million) and the homes (that returned 185,551 million) which are allowing the country to financially rebalance. In the same period, public administrations have increased their debt by 739,085 million euros. Although someone has to spend so that the ship is not sunk, the sustainability is significant in all sectors.

"The private sector has reduced its debt in just six years by practically 50% of the GDP. They are the companies and homes which are allowing the country to financially rebalance."

A lot of this private debt payoff has to do with the stock of the European Central Bank, because actual negative interest rates have reduced the financial charge of the loans in a substantial way. It is saving that suffers most. The so-called net financial operations of families as a percentage of the GDP, which is commonly referred to as "net financial saving" decreased by 3.2% in 2015 to 2.6% in 2016. This happened, mostly, because although were acquired financial assets with a value of 39,000 million euros, investments had a fall of value of 11,000 million euros in the whole of the year, basically for the negative behaviour of the stock exchange during most of the exercise.

The profile of the Spanish saver has been returned more conservative after the crisis. At the end of 2016 41% of the saving was materialised in deposits and cash, although equity stakes have a nothing despicable 25%. In any case, the component that more increases its weight in the financial statement of domestic economies are private pension funds, that already represent 17% of the total assets. Another story to keep you awake, is where that financial wealth is concentrated by age bracket, which requires a different analysis. Of course, it is not around young people, nor are their perspectives in this sense very flattering. Many of them ate credit in some alleged income perspectives and favourable employment that, now, are not such.

Now, little by little, it is reconciled to gulp down credit of way blander and sustainable with to return the existing one. A complicated balance and not always checkable.

Santiago Carbó.

You can read the original at: http://blog.funcas.es/el-credito-que-comimos/

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